Testing the limits of market efficiency. We deployed a recursive AI agent to find Alpha in the world's sharpest sports prediction markets — using — matches and 16 years of historical memory. Every hypothesis, every failure, every position: logged publicly.
Betfair Exchange is the most efficient sports prediction market in the world. Prices are set by sharp money competing against each other — not a bookmaker with a built-in margin. If a signal survives here, it survives everywhere. Beat prediction markets here and nothing else is a problem.
Closing Line Value measures whether the agent found Alpha — a better price than the market settled at. Positive ROI with negative CLV is luck. Positive CLV with negative ROI (short-term) is a real edge. The agent measures both — and won't promote a signal without beating the closing line.
Weekly digest: all live positions with pre-kickoff reasoning, new hypotheses, Alpha summary, and everything the agent got wrong. The graveyard is as public as the leaderboard.